Freedom's Truth

This is not another article about how well we've done building Iraq's infrastructure, improving it's electricity, schools, etc. We have done great things there, but that doesn't win wars. And while this blog is a 'quagmire-free' zone, I've stated in the past that there was a possibility of defeat for us and victory for insurgents. ( I felt it remote at most times, except the time of greatest danger, when the UN was meddling in Iraq's affairs. The UN was a greater danger to Iraq's future than the cleric al-Sadr.)

Victory is in our grasp. Barring the election of John Kerry, all the necessary components for Strategic victory are in place. No, we haven't won yet, but we are like the Allies in 1944 after the D-Day beach-head was secured. We are past the point of being thrown back in the sea. While some has gone wrong, too much is starting to go right for us to lose, so long as we persevere. There is a historic inevitability that will start playing out soon that will yield a democratic, free and stable Iraq. And the few enemies in Iraq, the 7,000 or so insurgents trying to stop it, will find it impossible to stop our progress.

The strategic necessary imperatives for victory are to:

• Maintain our resolve and leadership to fight to win in Iraq, i.e., re-elect Bush, keep Allawi and hold the alliance together
• Train up Iraqi forces to maintain law and order
• Clear out remaining insurgent havens (Ramadi, Fallujah, Al-Anbar) and return them to full Iraqi Government control
• Set Iraq on a path to elections in January 2005 and democracy to remove the 'cassus belli' of insurgency
• Root out and destroy terrorist cells

Of all of these, all have operations in place, and all but the first can achieve success simply through sufficient effort and persistence.

First, resolution and alliance. When Allawi said today - "We are going to prevail against the forces of evil here in Iraq," he told reporters. "Whatever it takes, we'll do." - we know, after Samarra, after the pounding that Fallujah has been given with Allawi's assent, that he means it. He will not cave to pressure. The Iraqi leadership is committed to the same goals we are. This is key.

Other allies: The victory of Karzai and Howard of Australia is a clear indication that the 'global electorate' stands up against terrorism. Other allies are standing with us, and with the Vatican announcement, we may even get more help (at a time when, thanks to new Iraqi security forces, they will not be much needed). The linchpin of that alliance however is President Bush, and a Kerry victory will deal the alliance a severe blow. It would be an "own goal" for our efforts against terrorism and in Iraq, and give the terrorists and insurgents someone new to 'test' his will. Bush's will has been tested, but Kerry has signalled in many ways an unwillingness to accept casualties. Kerry has signalled defeatism and a retreat-oriented policy. So a Kerry victory (now about a 40% chance) is the one remaining danger.

The state of the threats, our insurgent and terrorist enemy: The handover of Mahdi Army weapons seems to be going successfully. AP Reports

"We are fed up with fighting," said Hassan Kadhim, 31, as he unloaded guns and mortar rounds from a pickup truck. He hoped to use the money to start a business.

The will of the enemy to fight is dissipating, I would rather we use the stick than the carrot on this army, but an arms buyback program is cheaper that using Marines, bombs and tanks to rout them out of these neighborhoods. For those who are skeptical, though, and that includes some U.S. military, this doesn't change the strategic calculus. The Mahdi Army is dissolving. It will dissolve further over time, either by negotiation or by force.

A failure in this program would not change the strategic course. The fly in the ointment remains the use of Iraqi forces only, but there is little danger of a Fallujah-like recurrence - any insurgent activity will be met with whatever force we need to put it down, including MNF. Moreover, these include Iraqi National Guard, forces that have been joining the U.S. forces in many operations, and have improved significantly in recent months.

The Mahdi Army's threat though was always less dangerous compared with the Sunni/Baathist and Zarqawi network threats. But the trend is encouraging, and taking out one front helps us focus more on the single-front threat in the Sunni triangle. We have made progress against the terrorists, but we will have to do more to destroy the terrorist networks, by first eliminating their safe havens in Fallujah and elsewhere. We are systematically doing that, but it will take some months. But the trend, judging by Tal Afar and Samarra, is encouraging.

The political configuration is encouraging as well. Sistani has called on his followers to vote and join the elections. Most Iraqis want elections. Even Fallujah representatives have said that they too want to vote. The circle of democratic action widens and the space for insurgent action narrows. Six months ago, Iraq was a different place. Six months from now, Iraq will be a new place yet again, only better.

I earlier wrote of Bush's re-election as the "tipping point" for our success in Iraq. Tommy Franks agrees: "

“I believe they (insurgents) are influenced by what they see in our media,” he told The Associated Press. “They see if they blow something up it’s front-page news ... (and) the presidential candidates will talk about it.

“After Nov. 2, that dynamic will leave. The problem won’t go away, but it’ll be diminished ... This will be a long process, but there will come a time when the insurgents have less opportunity to create mischief for us,” he said.

The Afghanistan election destroyed the myth of U.S. imperialism, and the Iraqi election is destroying the myth of an Iraqi 'resistance'. And the American election, when Bush is re-elected, will destroy the myth that America runs when it is bloodied. And soon, when the world turns its back on the insurgency, when Iraq is free, soveriegn and democratic, with Iraqis patrolling the streets, there is no reason left for them to fight. Except those terrorist sadists who want only blood - they will get back what they have given to others.

Then, we will have won. Finally.